A top trader, known as a “whale,” has profited significantly from a $20 million bet on the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The trader used Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market, to wager heavily on former President Donald Trump’s victory. As betting activity intensified following Trump’s increasing popularity, the trader’s position grew in value, eventually netting them a substantial gain as the market predicted a stronger likelihood of Trump securing the Republican nomination.
Polymarket, which allows users to place bets on future events, has seen a surge in election-related activity as the race for the White House heats up. The platform operates by enabling participants to buy shares in prediction outcomes, which fluctuate in price based on supply and demand. As the market adjusted to reflect Trump’s rising chances, the whale’s massive investment paid off handsomely.
The victory was particularly noteworthy as Polymarket’s structure relies on user-driven forecasts, where the price of shares represents the probability of a given event occurring. The whale took advantage of this dynamic, placing large bets early in the cycle when Trump’s odds were still low but began gaining momentum. This strategy paid off as Trump gained more political traction and the market shifted in his favor.
The $20 million profit underscores the growing intersection of politics and decentralized finance, as more traders seek to capitalize on real-world events via blockchain-based platforms. While Polymarket and similar prediction markets offer a unique way to speculate on future outcomes, they also raise questions about market manipulation and the ethics of profiting from politically charged bets.
